The Final 16 I Class 5A section title matchups

Section 1: No. 2 Owatonna (6-3) at No. 1 Rochester Mayo (8-1), 7 p.m., Saturday

Section 2: No. 2 Chaska (9-0) at No. 1 Mankato West (9-0), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 3: No. 2 Hastings (7-2) at No. 1 St. Thomas Academy (9-0), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 4: No. 7 Tartan (3-7) at No. 1 Mahtomedi (7-2), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 5: No. 2 Robbinsdale Armstrong (6-3) at No. 1 Robbinsdale Cooper (7-2), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 6: No. 2 Park Center (8-1) at No. 1 Rogers (8-1), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 7: No. 2 Elk River (7-2) at No. 1 Andover (9-0), 7 p.m., Friday

Section 8: No. 4 Alexandria (5-5) at No. 3 Bemidji (6-3), 7 p.m., Friday

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Section 1-5A championship I No. 2 Owatonna at No. 1 Rochester Mayo

Saturday I November 6 I Spartan Stadium I 7 p.m.

	Rochester Mayo (8-1)	Owatonna (6-3)
Semifinal result	W, 49-29 over No. 4 Century	W, 33-7 over No. 3 Northfield
Rushing offense	207.9 yards per game	117.1 yards per game
Passing offense	123.1 yards per game	125.6 yards per game
Overall offense	331 yards per game	242.7 yards per game
Scoring average	42.8 points per game	23.9 points per game
Defense average	17 points per game	19.6 points per game
Last 5 games	4 wins, 1 loss	4 wins, 1 loss
Last section title	1997 (lost in state quarterfinals)	2020 (state tournament cancelled)
Last section title game	2020 (L, 30-28 to Owatonna)	2020 (W, 30-28 over Mayo)
QRF rankings	No. 6 of 47	No. 15 of 47
Schedule/Results	W 58-31 vs Owatonna	L 58-31 at Rochester Mayo
	W 49-22 at Northfield	W 16-14 vs Rochester Century
	W 42-0 vs Rochester Century	L 42-0 at Mankato West
	W 53-6 at Rochester JM	W 51-7 vs Austin
	L 30-6 at Mankato West	W 26-7 at Northfield
	W 45-0 vs New Prague	W 41-0 vs Rochester John Marshall
	W 42-20 at Austin	L 27-0 at New Prague
	W 41-15 vs Byron Section 1-AAAAA semifinal	W 17-14 vs Kasson-Mantorville Section 1-AAAAA semifinal
	W 49-29 vs Rochester Century*	W 33-7 vs Northfield*

 

	Rochester Mayo	Owatonna
OFFENSE	a From a raw talent standpoint, few teams in all of Class 5A can match the Spartans’ top four offensive weapons at QB, RB, WR1 and WR2. Quite frankly, Mayo possesses more than enough firepower to compensate for any potential defensive shortcomings and blow the game wide open if the Huskies don’t come to play.	Owatonna has posted some juicy numbers against lesser competition and is pointed in the right direction, but is far less experienced and explosive than its counterpart and will be relying on a core of players that has little-to-no deep playoff experience across the board.
DEFENSE	PUSH
	There are certainly points to be had against Mayo, but the Spartans played the exact schedule as the Huskies and surrendered fewer points on average. They have good size up front and awesome athleticism in the back end.	At last, Owatonna’s defense is playing at 100% health and appears to be operating at full throttle at just the right time. Since Week 4, the Huskies have allowed just 10.3 points per game and have held four opponents to 7 points or less in the stretch.
SPECIAL TEAMS	Mayo has an excellent kicker who has drilled 4 of 6 field goals and a top-flight returner in Cayden Holcomb.	a One could reasonably argue that Drew Henson is the best kicker in the entire state, regardless of classification or grade, and is an absolute weapon on both field goals and kickoffs. Eli Knutson has rounded into form and emerged as a rock solid punter after an up-and-down start.
STAFF EXPERIENCE	Donny Holcomb is one of the best coaches in the Big Southeast District, but hasn’t won a section title in his tenure and the program hasn’t been to the state tournament since 1997.	a In a rather staggering number, Owatonna has played in all-but two Section 1-5A title games since 2011 and claimed seven championships in the span under the current long-time staff.

 

 

 

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Opponent Breakdown I Rochester Mayo Spartans

Definitive Obstacle to Overcome: Containing their offense

The Spartans are one of the most explosive teams in all of Class 5A. In fact, only one team, No. 1-ranked Mankato West, has scored more points than Mayo in the 47-team field and the Spartans average almost 20 more points per game than the second-highest scoring team in the section, which just-so happens to be Owatonna. Mayo boasts an impressive foursome of skill position athletes — Bennett Ellsworth (QB), Noah Smith (RB), Cayden Holcomb (WR) and Carter Holcomb (WR) — that can pile up touchdowns in a hurry, exhibited by its 21-point outburst against Century in the final five minutes of a 49-29 victory in the section semifinals last Saturday night. Cayden Holcomb and Carter Holcomb combined for 1,416 yards and 14 touchdowns entering the postseason and have tortured defenses out wide with their track-level speed and superb athleticism. Ellsworth has posted all-state caliber numbers during his senior season, ringing up 21 touchdowns and 1,982 yards through the air and could finish as high as No. 2 all-time in school history in passing yards and touchdowns when all is said and done. Statistically, Smith will also go down as one of the best players at his position to come through the program as the senior running back averages a gaudy 7.5 yards per carry — amassing 1,023 yards — and has scored 20 touchdowns.

From Coach Jeff Williams: “That’s just it, their ability to make explosive plays in both the run game and pass game poses a tall challenge for our defense, so our focus this week is cleaning up some of the things we didn’t do well in the first game. And that comes down to tackling. We didn’t tackle well, and they popped some big plays on us.”

Possible Opportunity for Success: Exploiting their defense

Only Elk River and Moorhead allowed more points than Mayo amongst the teams in the final Associated Press top 10 poll, and though the numbers can be deceiving, the Spartans have surrendered three or more touchdowns in almost half their games this season. Additionally, they haven’t exactly been put to the fire down the stretch as their latest three outings have come against a small Class 4A team in Byron (4-6), an Austin (1-8) squad that was ranked as low as dead-last in the Class 5A QRF and a Rochester Century opponent that opened the season 1-5 and finished just 4-6. 

From Coach Williams: “You know, the teams that have found some success against them have done it in a few different ways. Austin was able to get some fades down the field and (Mankato) West scored thirty on them, but they are a very fine football team and have scored on everyone this season. But they (the Spartans) have a good defense, and it won’t be easy on Saturday night.”

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Matchup Prognosis I Owatonna’s chances as the rare underdog

Owatonna should be CONFIDENT, because only Mahtomedi has surrendered more points-per-game amongst the eight No. 1 seeds in Class 5A entering the 2021 postseason. The Spartans also allowed winless Austin to hang around deep into the second half in Week 7 and led just 28-21 against No. 4-seed Century before detonating for three touchdowns in the game’s final five minutes in last week’s section semifinal. The Huskies put up more points against Mayo than top-ranked Mankato West (31 vs. 30) and did so on the site of this weekend’s game, Spartan Stadium. Furthermore, Owatonna’s defense has come a long way since the first matchup and played that contest without its best player, Grant Achterkirch, and lost impact starters Conner Grems (linebacker) and Ryley Glassmaker (defensive end) to injuries as well.

From Coach Williams: “I think our success on defense recently comes down to chemistry. They are finally able to practice consistently together and focus on the things they are able to do and not overcompensate for guys that might be out.”

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Owatonna should be CAUTIOUS because the Spartans can absolutely explode at any time and turn this one into a rout before the Huskies even know what hit them. One would have to look really, really hard to find a discernable weakness within Mayo’s multi-faceted offensive attack.

From Coach Williams: “The Holcombes have been catching five-yard hitches and turning them into seventy-yard touchdowns all season. Again, if we don’t tackle, we don’t stand a chance.”

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If Owatonna plays great, it will have a serious chance to lead this game from start-to-finish. In order for that to happen, though, the Huskies will not only need a lights-out effort from its defense and a mistake-free performance by its offense, but a few fortunate bounces along the way. 

If Owatonna plays well, it will be in the game until the fourth quarter and would need the Spartans to be just slightly off their game in order to pull off the victory.

If Owatonna plays just OK, it will remain within striking distance for the first three quarters, but would need the Spartans to essentially bottom-out for the game to remain within a single possession late in the fourth quarter.

If Owatonna plays below average, they will lose this game by multiple touchdowns and would be fortunate to avoid the running clock by the middle of the fourth quarter.

If Owatonna bottoms-out, it will be ugly.

Formula for success I Solving the Spartans

Don’t get into a track meet: The best-case scenario for Owatonna would to win the toss, defer to the second half, force a punt on Mayo’s opening drive and begin its trek toward controlling the clock. Scoring early and breaking serve while tucking the extra possession to start the third quarter in their back pocket would also aid the Huskies in their quest for the upset bid. But if OHS gets into a shootout — even if it stays close for a couple quarters — that would spin the Huskies right into Mayo’s web.

 

From Coach Williams: “We tried to go toe-to-toe with them in the first half (in Week 1) and that didn’t work well. We have to run the football and extend drives.”

 

Limit Mayo star running back, Noah Smith, to less than 65 yards: On the surface, it sounds obtuse to proclaim that Owatonna will have the advantage if Mayo’s explosive passing game goes to the air 30-plus times, but the Huskies boast an excellent secondary and would handcuff the Spartans if they can contain Smith, which has been done this year. Though West stuffs everyone, the Scarlets held Smith to five yards on nine carries (0.5 YPC) in Week 5. In Week 2, Northfield held him to just 53 yards on 18 carries. The Spartans finished 1-1 in those games and allowed 52 total points.

 

From Coach Williams: “He presents a problem. When we played them in Week One, he would break an arm-tackle, make one more other kid miss and was gone.”

 

Win time-of-possession by 7-10 minutes: Owatonna won’t score on every drive, but avoiding quick 3-and-outs is paramount. In fact, the Huskies essentially need to avoid these short possessions at all costs, especially in the first half. Often the best way to subdue an explosive offense to simply keep it off the field. 

 

Flip the field: If Owatonna does stall out, striking a few well-placed punts will go a long way in keeping the Huskies’ stout defense in a comfort zone while forcing the Spartans to face a long field toward the end zone. 

 

From Coach Williams: “It’s making explosive plays — even if we don’t score — or causing turnovers, or making a play on special teams. We are going to have to flip the field.”

 

Embrace the role: For the first time in its long run of postseason success over the last 12-15 years, Owatonna isn’t the heavy favorite entering the section championship game, and there is validity to playing like there is nothing to lose and sneaking up on a team as the underdog.

 

From Coach Williams: “What I like about this whole thing is we can afford to be loose. We aren’t favored in this game. We aren’t the team to beat. They can afford to play a little more relaxed and just go out there and make plays.”