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The Postseason Picture

10/24/2021, 5:00pm CDT
By Jon Weisbrod

The Landscape I The Class 5A field at large

Undefeated teams: Mankato West (8-0, Section 2), Chaska (8-0, Section 2), Andover (8-0, Section 7), St. Thomas Academy (8-0, Section 3)

QRF top 10: No. 1 Andover (8-0); No. 2 Mankato West (8-0); No. 3 Rogers (7-1); No. 4 Chaska (8-0); No. 5 St. Thomas Academy (8-0); No. 6 Rochester Mayo (7-1); No. 7 Chanhassen (6-2); No. 8 Park Center (7-1); No. 9 Robbinsdale Cooper (6-2); No. 10 Elk River (6-2)

Top seeds: Rochester Mayo (Section 1); Mankato West (Section 2); St. Thomas Academy (Section 3); Mahtomedi (Section 4); Robbinsdale Cooper (Section 5); Rogers (Section 6); Andover (Section 7); Moorhead (Section 8)

Top-ranked bracket: Section 2 houses three of the top seven teams in the final QRF rankings, including a pair of undefeated squads in Mankato West (No. 2) and Chaska (No. 4). Third-seeded Chanhassen is No. 7 in the state and is one of three teams that finished with a 6-2 record, which also includes fourth-seeded New Prague and fifth-seeded Mankato East. Waconia (3-5) is the only one of the group to finish below .500, but they played the toughest schedule in all of Class 5A and lost to Chaska just 7-0 in Week 2. Additionally, Mankato East squared off against Mankato West in Week 8 and lost just 23-20. The average QRF of the bunch is 11.3.

Lowest-ranked bracket: In the 47-team Class, Section 4 has five teams ranked No. 33 or lower and has the lowest-ranked top two seeds in No. 1 Mahtomedi (15th) and No. 2 St. Paul Central (26). The Zephrys are the only team to finish above .500 in the 7-team field and the average QRF is 31.8.

State opening round matchups: Section 8 vs. Section 5; Section 4 vs. Section 1; Section 7 vs. Section 6; Section 2 vs. Section 3

Section 1-AAAAA Snapshot I The path to state

Opening-round I Tuesday

No. 6 Austin (7-7) at No. 3 Northfield (3-5); No. 5 Rochester John Marshall (1-7) at No. 4 Rochester Century (3-5); No. 1 Rochester Mayo (7-1), bye; No. 2 Owatonna (5-3), bye

Semifinals I Saturday, Oct. 30

No. 6 Austin/No. 3 Northfield at No. 2 Owatonna; 5 Rochester John Marshall/No. 4 Rochester Century at No. 1 Rochester Mayo

Championship I Saturday, Nov. 6

TBD at high seed

 

Matchup Focus I Framing Owatonna’s tournament trek

IF OWATONNA PLAYS NORTHFIELD…

Owatonna should be CONFIDENT because they beat the Raiders by 19 points in the regular season in a game they probably would have won by 30-plus if not for a few untimely miscues. The Huskies produced their only 200-plus yard rushing output of the season and that’s a good sign for an OHS coaching staff that prefers to deploy a ground-oriented attack in the increasingly-cold postseason weather.

Owatonna should be CAUTIOUS because the Raiders might not be the flashiest No. 3 seed in the state, but they at least have proven they can beat the same teams Owatonna has defeated, and often by a comfortable margin. Northfield is well-coached and would be coming off a victory over Austin in this scenario while the Huskies will enter the contest having last played nine days prior in Week 8 against Kasson-Mantorville. If there’s any merit to the concept of sustaining positive momentum against an extended layoff, Northfield would have the edge in this regard, at least theoretically.

If Owatonna plays great, they will be triggering the running clock by the middle of the fourth quarter and have allowed zero points.

If Owatonna plays well, they will win by a similar margin to the 26-7 victory in the regular season. The Huskies would have out-gained the Raiders on the ground and won the turnover battle, but would have likely waited until the fourth quarter to land the knockout blow.

If Owatonna plays OK, it will be in for a tight game, but would likely still win and sustain a slim lead throughout, depending on how the Raiders execute. In this reality, the Huskies would have lost the turnover battle and struggled to find rhythm through the air. If Northfield rises to a level it has only flirted with this season, it will be in position to win this game.

If Owatonna plays below average, it will be because its offense failed to launch and its defense allowed too many big plays. The Huskies would likely still have a shot at winning the game heading into the fourth quarter, but would be battling an increasingly-confident Raiders team with just enough weapons to escape with a victory.

If Owatonna bottoms-out, it will remain within striking distance at halftime, but would have surrendered multiple first quarter touchdowns and likely find itself trailing by 10-14 points in the fourth quarter.

Overall margin for error: Moderate

FORMULA FOR SUCCESS…

  1. Gain at least 175 yards on the ground: Owatonna is at its best when they are running effectively and it would help set the tone moving forward during the increasingly chilly postseason where passing becomes incrementally difficult.
  2. Put Jacob Ginskey in position to succeed: As one might expect, it’s been a roller-coaster four starts for the sophomore quarterback and he’s completed only four passes in the last two games. Ginskey has all the tools to eventually run Owatonna’s offense at a high level, but for now, they need him to regain the confidence he displayed in his first two starts.
  3. Give up less than 100 yards on the ground: Northfield’s Soren Richardson was forced to throw the ball 29 times in the regular season matchup and completed just eight passes all game. In one particularly smothering stretch by the OHS secondary, he was held to just 1-for-15 through parts of multiple quarters.

BY THE NUMBERS

28 I Northfield’s QRF ranking of 47 Class 5A teams entering the postseason.

3-2 I The Raiders record against Section 1-5A opponents during the regular season.

2-1 I Northfield’s record entering Week 4.

1-4 I Northfield’s record in the final five games of the regular season.

44-2 I Average final score in Owatonna’s three victories over the Raiders since the 2019 season.

4-0 I Owatonna’s record at home this season.

0 I Number of times the Huskies failed to reach the section semifinals over the last 15 years.

IF OWATONNA PLAYS AUSTIN…

Owatonna should be CONFIDENT because they beat the Packers by 44 points earlier this season in what was objectively its most dominant effort in the last couple seasons. The Huskies clearly match up well against Austin and would need to only look at the tape from Week 4 to formulate an effective game plan against a team that started the regular season 0-7 before taking down winless Albert Lea in Week 8.

Owatonna should be CAUTIOUS because in this scenario the Packers would be coming into the game fresh off an upset win over the Raiders and probably playing with a great deal of confidence after a third straight strong performance dating back to Week 7 when they put a major scare into Rochester Mayo. Austin eventually lost 42-20, but traded punches with the highly-ranked Spartans for all in and trailed just 28-20 in the middle of the third quarter.

If Owatonna plays great, they will be triggering the running clock by the middle of the fourth quarter and have allowed zero points.

If Owatonna plays well, they will win comfortably and have a built a big enough cushion to rest their starters for the final couple possessions of the fourth quarter with the final score lingers somewhere in the 40-14 range.

If Owatonna plays OK, it will probably still win by 10-plus points, but will have asked its starters to play a full four quarters in a game it was probably hoping to rest for the majority of the final 12 minutes.

If Owatonna plays below average, it will be because it lost the turnover battle and asked its defense to bail them out on multiple occasions, and this where things could get dicey. Though the Huskies would probably still win, it would be close entering the fourth quarter.

If Owatonna bottoms-out, it still might win, but it will be ugly and a bad omen for the team moving forward. In this scenario, the Huskies would have committed at least three turnovers and surrendered multiple big touchdown plays.

Overall margin for error: Considerable

FORMULA FOR SUCCESS…

  1. Pile on the points early: Owatonna would be a heavy favorite if they play the Packers and building an early lead would suppress any confidence the Packers brought into the contest. It would also set the stage to possibly allow the starters to rest for the majority of the fourth quarter.
  2. Put Jacob Ginskey in position to succeed: See No. 2 formula vs. Northfield above.
  3. Finish with less than two turnovers: From a pure physical standpoint, the Packers simply don’t have the weapons to line up and simply trade blows with the Huskies on a drive-by-drive basis for a full four quarters. The best way to breath life into an underdog is to give them free possessions and short fields.

BY THE NUMBERS

45 I Northfield’s QRF ranking of 47 Class 5A teams entering the postseason.

0-5 I The Packers record against Section 1-5A opponents during the regular season.

8.8 Average number of points Owatonna has allowed in four home games this season.

23 I Number of years since the last time the Huskies lost to Austin on Oct. 21, 1998 in a 12-10 final.

55-43-7 I Owatonna’s record in the all-time series.

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