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ON SCHEDULE, ON PAPER

08/16/2021, 11:15pm CDT
By Jon Weisbrod

Ranking Owatonna’s eight 2021 opponents based on preseason projections

On Monday morning, the Owatonna football team gathered inside and officially commenced the 2021 season with a team meeting at 8 a.m. sharp.

After hearing from the coaches and making a few introductions, the long procession of players, coaches, managers and other support staff made their way to the vast open practice fields located on the far south end of campus.

The players — strapped snuggly into their sharp silver helmets and sporting t-shirts, athletic shorts and spikes — took their first few steps in what will be an exciting 18-day buildup to the much-anticipated Week 1 showdown against Rochester Mayo on Friday, Sept. 3.

Though exciting on a number of levels, Owatonna’s showdown against the Spartans is only a small part of a larger season-long picture that is high school football in the state of Minnesota. For the vast majority of the 350-plus programs, the entire campaign will fit into less than three calendar months and only last more 100 days for a small handful of teams that advance to one of the seven Prep Bowl championship games scheduled to take place over a two-day period in late-November.

For the Huskies, the regular season will consist of six Big Southeast District Red Division contests and two cross-over games against opponents from the smaller Big SE Blue Division. Regardless of its record, Owatonna will also be guaranteed at least one postseason game as a member of the six-team Section 1-5A.

At this point, though, the Huskies are still operating on a small scale, taking things one day at a time and hammering the fundamentals. With more than a dozen practices and an organized scrimmage still in front of Week 1, the coaching staff hasn’t even began installing the basic game plan for the Spartans.

So, keeping that in mind — and considering that teams won’t practice in full pads until the middle of the week — the following breakdown lists Owatonna’s 2021 opponents and ranks them from 1 to 8 based on projected overall talent and matchup difficulty.
1. Mankato West SCARLETS

2020 record: 6-0 overall, 4-0 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 3 in Mankato

For the better part of the last two decades, the hierarchy of Big Nine Conference and Big Southeast District has been painted in blue and scarlet.

Combining for five state championships in the last 19 years and totaling 15 regular season titles between them in the span, Owatonna and Mankato West have established — and repeatedly reestablished — a standard of excellence within its southern Minnesota footprint and beyond.

Within each program’s already unique spectrum of superiority, both have also sustained periods of universal dominance in recent years. The Scarlets have won two state championships since 2008 (Class 4A in 2008 and Class 5A in 2014) while the Huskies have captured three state titles since 2013.

After watching Owatonna re-emerge as the top dog following back-to-back Class 5A state crowns in 2017 and 2018, the pendulum appears to have swung back in Mankato West’s direction as the teams prepare for the highly-anticipated 2021 campaign. Not only did the Scarlets win last season’s matchup, but they retain more top-level returning players than any team in the district.

And it’s not even close.

Of the nearly 50 members in Class 5A football, Mankato West was one of just five teams that went undefeated last year and was clearly on a path destined for U.S. Bank Stadium before the season was cancelled in mid-November due to COVID-19 concerns. West finished second in the state in scoring at 36.7 points-per-game and defeated the previous two Class 5A state champions in back-to-back outings. On Nov. 6, they ended Owatonna’s lengthy district winning streak with a decisive 35-14 victory at the OHS stadium and took down 2019 Prep Bowl winner, Chaska, in their one-and-only postseason game two weeks later.

Ultimately, no one will ever know what could have been in 2020, but that’s of little consequence for an absolutely loaded Scarlets roster that returns four all-district honorees and another five individuals that were given honorable mention consideration. That’s more returning players on those lists than Owatonna, Northfield, Austin, Rochester John Marshall and New Prague combined.

So, yeah, the team that finished 6-0, out-scored their opponents by more than three touchdowns per game and finished as the No. 2-ranked in the state rolls back the majority of its top players and won’t be lacking in motivation.

Scary stuff.

The list of Mankato West’s high-achieving athletes touches every corner of the field and spans both sides of the ball. Quarterback Zander Dittberner — who threw for 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions as a junior — pilots an offense that also retains Power 5 college recruit Mekhi Collins (Iowa State) at receiver as well as center Tanner Schumski.

And those are just the offensive returners that made the all-district squad in 2020.

Flip to the other side of the ball and the embarrassment of riches continues. Reigning Red Division Defensive Player of the Year, Ryan Haley, comes back at middle linebacker and is joined by all-district performer, Gannon Rosenfeld, at defensive end. The pair combined for 31 tackles-for-loss and 10 sacks last season.

Reigning honorable mention members Brady Haugum at outside linebacker, Peyton Goettlicher at cornerback and Brock Leider at defensive end add to West’s unmatched talent at all three levels.

2. Rochester Mayo SPARTANS

2020 record: 4-3 overall, 2-2 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 1 in Rochester

From a pure physical standpoint, few would argue that Rochester Mayo is at least a few steps behind Mankato West, albeit without having played a game yet. That’s also nothing to be ashamed of as the Scarlets might just be the best team in all of Class 5A.

When it comes to raw excitement and overall significance, though, the Spartans are unquestionably Owatonna’s most intriguing opponent as we enter the new season.

There’s just a lot going on here.

Aside from being the season-opener and the first time the bleachers will be at full capacity in two calendar years, the Huskies’ showdown against the Spartans will serve as a substantial benchmark for the youthful OHS squad, and might just determine the trajectory of the entire season.

Basically, we’re going to learn more about the Owatonna football team in the first 48 minutes against Mayo than we will in the first three weeks of preseason practice.

The Spartans will offer a physical challenge at a number of levels. They bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the district in Bennett Ellsworth along with perhaps the top triple-threat athlete in Cayden Holcomb. Ellsworth led the league in passing yards as a junior with 1,536 and threw 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Holcomb was a dynamo in the return game and his 538 receiving yards were second in the district while his five interceptions where tops. Both made the all-district squad and are joined by a cadre of notable returning players such as honorable mention athletes Carter Holcomb (WR) and Noah Smith (LB).

It should be noted that receiver, Michael Mankaka, has moved across the country and will play his senior season at Laurens High School in South Carolina. Mankaka would have been one of the fastest athletes in the entire district and provided the already-explosive Spartans with a unique game-changing dimension. He only caught 11 passes for 136 yards last season, but has drawn interest from Division I colleges since he’s been moved, and that’s not all that surprising. The senior stands almost 6-foot-3 with long arms, excellent leaping ability and has been clocked in the 4.5-second range in the 40-yard dash.

The Huskies and Spartans are expected to challenge for the sub-district and section titles — Owatonna based mainly on reputation and culture and Mayo based mainly on returning talent — and could easily meet in the postseason once again. Last fall, of course, the Huskies defeated Mayo, 30-28, in the Section

What a great way to kick off the season.

3. Kasson-Mantorville KoMETS

2020 record: 5-1 overall

On the schedule: Week 8 in Owatonna

Without a game having been played, Kasson-Mantorville represents the final of three opponents on Owatonna’s schedule that stands out in a distinct tier. In fact, from a raw talent standpoint, one could reasonably argue the KoMets possess more high-end players than any opponent on the Huskies’ schedule, outside of Mankato West, of course.

However, there are a few reasons K-M is behind Rochester Mayo on this list. The main simply being the unknown factor. This will be the first ever meeting between the KoMets and Huskies — and as talented as K-M may be on paper — it’s impossible to predict how they will survive a full 48 minutes against a traditionally deep and talented program from a larger MSHSL classification. Though this won’t be Kasson’s first go-around against a Class 5A opponent, Owatonna is a different animal. Football is a numbers game, and OHS is more than twice K-M’s size — 1,374 to 652 to be exact — and is one of the few teams in the state that has maintained steady participation throughout all levels of the football program.

Still, Kasson-Mantorville isn’t to be underestimated. The KoMets lost just one game in 2020 and quietly finished as the No. 6-ranked team in Class 4A according to the Associated Press and rose to No. 2 in the computerized QRF standings. It should be noted that K-M’s lone defeat came against the top-ranked team from a smaller classification when the KoMets ran into a buzz-saw on a neutral field in 42-7 loss to Albany of Class 3A in Week 4.

Kasson’s ground-and-pound offense rolls back their two best rushers from last season in all-district performers Matt Donovan and Anthony Moe-Tucker. The pair combined for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns in just six games. Donovan, the quarterback, led K-M in rushing touchdowns (10) and rushing yards (584) while Moe-Tucker paced the team in yards-per-carry at 7.2.

Moe-Tucker is one of several K-M players that has drawn interest from college scouts. Posting a swift 4.65 seconds in the 40-yard dash and measuring a sturdy 5-11 and 215 pounds, he’s received offers from a slew of Division I FCS and D-II programs. Donovan has caught the eye of a colleges from throughout the Upper Midwest while 6-5, 215-pound teammate, Jakob Aarsvold (DE/WR), recently committed to D-II power Minnesota-Duluth. Fellow defensive lineman, Brock Swanson (6-2, 195), is also on the college radar.

Kasson-Mantorville will deploy a number of two-way starters, including OT/DT, Owen Bradford, as well as defensive backs Logan Vaughn and Brooks Buchanan, whose names come straight out of central casting for Friday Night Lights. Bradford garnered all-district honors while Vaughn and Buchanan — who will add depth to K-M’s stable of wingbacks — made the honorable mention list for their defensive efforts last season.

4. Rochester Century PANTHERS

2020 record: 4-3 overall, 2-2 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 2 in Owatonna

Century actually has four individuals projected to return that were given honorable mention consideration by the Big Southeast District last year, but the Panthers have as many significant holes to fill on both sides of the ball as any team in the Red Division.

Last year’s sub-district Offensive POY, Isaiah Huber, is off playing college football at Division II Augustana University and was part of a talented foursome of players in the Class of 2021 that earned all-district honors and helped the Panthers win three of their final four games last fall.

On paper, Century’s strength will be its defense. Though sub-district Lineman of the Year, Peter Lynch, has graduated, the majority of last season’s starting secondary comes back, including reigning all-district honorable mention players Matt Haun and Zach Huber. Paulo Mendez is undersized at 5-foot-9 and 225 pounds, but turned heads based on his effort as a junior and will help anchor the Panthers’ defensive front.

5. New Prague TROJANS

2020 record: 2-3 overall, 2-1 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 7 in New Prague

Similar to Kasson-Mantorville, there’s a bit of mystery surrounding New Prague as the 2021 season kicks off.

What we do know is limited. The Trojans played just four regular season games last year and traded a win for a loss each week along the way. Outside of that, they had two games cancelled due to COVID concerns — including a Week 4 matchup with the Huskies — and lost 27-7 to Waconia in the opening round of the Section 2-5A tournament.

During the district portion of the schedule, the most noteworthy result was probably in a 23-20 loss to state-ranked Kasson-Mantorville (Class 4A) in a see-saw contest that was only decided when the KoMets’ drilled a field goal late in the fourth quarter.

The remainder of the Trojans’ results were a bit of a mixed bag. In Week 1, they got blown out by Mankato West, struggled against rebuilding Northfield in a narrow victory a week later and beat Rochester Century, 21-14, directly following the two-week hiatus on Nov. 11. Four of New Prague’s five opponents finished above .500 and combined for a 20-13 overall record.

Of the five New Prague players that made the all-district team last season, lineman Cam Prochaska (6-1, 182) is the only one who returns and will be joined by Red Division honorable mention teammates Matt Friedges and Ethan Chromy at receiver. Friedges and Chromy produced solid numbers in the Trojans’ truncated schedule last fall and might provide an aerial dimension to NP’s offense that has been lacking in recent years.

New Prague is a relatively new opponent to Owatonna’s regular schedule and is winless in five games against the Huskies since 2015. However, there is a reality in which the Trojans find their stride and make some noise in the district. The high school is comfortably situated within Class 5A and boasts a steady enrollment of roughly 1,300 students, meaning numbers shouldn’t be an issue, at least theoretically. The team also has one of the best stadiums in the league and has put together some respectable outings competing in the rugged Section 2-5A tournament over the last 4-5 years.

But, again, it’s impossible to project if this will be the season things turn around for New Prague.

6. Rochester John Marshall ROCKETS

2020 record: 2-4 overall, 1-3 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 6 in Owatonna

Rochester John Marshall is a difficult team to peg.

When judging Owatonna’s 2021 opponents, one could arguably slide the Rockets into the same tier as Century and New Prague, but there’s just something about the Huskies that has puzzled John Marshall for the majority of the Jeff Williams era.

Basically, Owatonna has dominated the series in the last 15 years, defeated the Rockets 40-0 last season and will be at home for this year’s battle. All of that, combined with the fact that the JM lost all four of its all-district honorees to graduation provide evidence as to why the Rockets aren’t higher on this list.

Physically, John Marshall retains some excellent size in honorable mention defensive linemen Ben Laack (6-4, 290) and Will Luedtke (6-3, 215), so the groundwork is there to build a rather fearsome unit at one of the most important position groups in the sport.

However, the Rockets lost some major components to last year’s team that won only two relatively close games against a pair of rebuilding opponents in Northfield and Austin. More on them below.

It should be noted that the program has experienced some success against the Huskies at the sub-varsity level in recent years and pulls athletes from one of the largest high schools in all of Class 5A, so there is reason to believe the Huskies could be in for a fight.

7.  Northfield RAIDERS

2020 record: 1-6 overall, 1-5 Red Division

On the schedule: Week 5 in Northfield

When it comes to ranking Northfield and Austin on the projected difficulty scale, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Huskies won’t emerge as substantial favorites in both games.

In 2020, the Raiders and Packers combined for just two victories (one apiece) and Austin senior defensive back Blake Smith is the only individual on either roster that earned all-district honors of any kind in 2020.

So, where’s the distinction?

First and foremost, the Raiders have offered a far greater level of competition against some of Owatonna’s best teams — and it’s really not even close — and are probably in better position to rebound from their recent struggles based on the exceptional infrastructure outgoing coach Bubba Sullivan established in three decades at the helm. The Raiders also shutout Austin 17-0 in the single-round Section 1-5A tournament last fall, so there’s that.

Still, Northfield will be relying on a senior class that produced zero all-league or honorable mention performers last fall and will be breaking-in a new head coach in hopes of revitalizing a program that has won just one game apiece over the last two seasons.

Raw size on both sides of the line has been an issue for the Raiders over the last three seasons and will continue to be a challenge for a team that shared the district title with OHS in 2016 and won it outright just three seasons ago in 2017.

8.  Austin PACKERS

2020 record: 1-6 overall

On the schedule: Week 4 in Owatonna

Austin has experienced its share of struggles in recent years.

Entering his third year at the helm, head coach Ed Schmitt started his tenure 2-0, but is just 1-13 since Week 3 of the 2019 season. The Packers have endured two different losing streaks of at least five games in the past two years and have not won a postseason game since 2017.

Austin has produced some flashy offensive numbers in recent years, but has failed to turn the corner as a whole thanks in large part to their inconsistencies on defense. Last year, they started strong by allowing just 14 total points in the first two weeks against Winona and Albert Lea, only to surrender an average of 40.3 points over the next four outings.

At least from a statistical standpoint, the Packers will be without two of their defensive cornerstones from 2020 in honorable mention all-league performers Logan O'Rourke (LB) and Mason O’Conner (DL). Though one-way starting cornerback Blake Smith is a solid building block as a returning all-district honoree, the defensive secondary is the least of the team’s concerns as they enter 2021.

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